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Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-09T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33873/-1
CME Note: Bright fast halo CME associated with the X1.8 class flare from AR 3848 (N13W08) and a significant eruption marked by an EUV wave, a large area of deep dimming and bright post-eruptive arcades. Associated with this CME there was also a initially slowly developing eruption of a very large filament spanning from N20W15 to N15W55 to the northeast of the Active Region 3848 which started prior to the X flare (~2024-10-08T22:19Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Dst min. in nT: -335
Dst min. time: 2024-10-11T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:54Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-09 03:31
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-09 02:12
 - Radial speed: 2112.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: N09W19
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 1039.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-10 14:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 36.70 hours)
Lead Time: 21.03 hour(s)
Difference: -0.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-10-09T17:44Z
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